Opinion: India Faces Increased Terror Threat Again

By ASAD MIRZA

WASHINGTON, DC (IANS) – A recent UN report has identified India as one of the peripheral countries where terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, Islamic State (IS) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) are planning to increase their presence.

The report by the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the UN Security Council says that Al Qaeda is regrouping in Taliban-led Afghanistan. But what is more worrying is that around 200 fighters of the Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the South Asia-focused branch of the parent terrorist organization, are still active, and who might be planning operations in Jammu and Kashmir, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

The report says that AQIS is grooming an affiliate for Kashmir operations. Plus, it also raises concern about Taliban-ruled Afghanistan becoming the epicenter of global terrorism, with around 20 militant groups operating from its soil.

While developing their network at home in India, the IS supporters also provide recruits to join jihadi organizations, outside India. According to reports, as many as 200 have left India, a significant number of these are from Kerala. Although this number might look surprisingly low considering India’s large Muslim population, the participation had an impact on the domestic network, forming an important conduit for advice and communication with the organization in Syria and in Afghanistan.

As per the Washington-based US Institute of Peace (USIP) report, one of those who benefited from this link was Umar Nisar Bhat. Nisar was a central figure in the pro-IS network in India from the inception of ISJK, playing a major role in the network’s propaganda dissemination until his arrest in July 2021.

But the threat here is multi-organizational not just from the Taliban or the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), but also from the ISKP, which has emerged as one of the dominant terrorist organizations in Afghanistan.

The IS’s presence in South Asia is not limited to Afghanistan and Pakistan but extends to include “periphery” territory, including India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.

Reportedly, Al Qaeda uses Afghanistan as an ideological and logistical hub to mobilize and recruit new fighters while covertly rebuilding its external operations capability.

According to the UN report, the Al Qaeda core in Afghanistan remains stable at 30 to 60 members, while all fighters in the country are estimated to be 400. The report also mentions Osama Mehmood being the AQIS chief.

One of the most alarming aspects of the UN report is that Al Qaeda is maintaining “a close and symbiotic” relationship with the Taliban government.

Under the patronage of high-ranking Taliban officials, Al Qaeda members “infiltrate law enforcement agencies and public administration bodies”, ensuring the security of the group’s cells across Afghanistan.

Though, Al Qaeda’s capability to conduct large-scale terror attacks “remains reduced while its intent remains firm”.

The report says that Al Qaeda is also working to strengthen cooperation with non-Afghan terror groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Turkistan Islamic Party, and Jamaat Ansarullah.

The UN report also assessed the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant-Khorasan Province (ISIL-KP) as the “most serious terrorist threat in Afghanistan and the wider region”. The ISIL-KP has in recent years developed close links with AQIS and many recruits from India and Pakistan have worked for this terror network.

For the Indian government, the most alarming aspect is the aspirations of the AQIS targeting India and Kashmir, which has been on its radar since 2010 onwards. However, as per another UN report of 2017, Al Qaeda has not been able to make significant inroads into the Kashmir theatre. The new threat, as evident from the UN report, maybe a renewed effort by the terror group to reinvigorate its network.

However, as per the USIP report the IS has largely failed to mobilize large numbers of supporters in India to migrate to the Levant or to engage in extremist activities at home. The group’s presence in India started with the establishment of several pro-Islamic State groups operating in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir.

In July 2017, these supporters took the name “Islamic State in Jammu and Kashmir” (ISJK), yet it was not until May 2019 that the IS officially established a separate province in India, also covering Kashmir, as per the USIP report.

The USIP report further says that the nexus of AQIS-ISIL-KP has already made its foray into India. This terror network poached some youth from Kerala who went missing and then were reported to have joined IS.

Similarly, many youths who were arrested between 2013 to 2016 from various locations like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, and Odisha were supposed to be members of the AQIS.

The UN report has also expressed concerns that the outlawed TTP could become a regional threat if it continues to have a safe operating base in Afghanistan.

Part of the reason why India, despite its large Muslim population, has seen fewer attacks than other countries in the region is due to India’s counterterrorism capabilities, which have considerably improved since the devastating 2008 Mumbai attack.

The USIP report suggests that to counter radicalization, states can promote political pluralism and respect for minorities. Government policies that discriminate against, marginalize, and even violently repress minorities are fostering severe domestic cleavages in South Asian countries, alienating groups to the extent that some of their members look to the IS to help them fight back.

To mitigate the risks associated with such policies, India should promote political and religious pluralism respecting all minorities.

(Mirza is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator. He also served as an Advisor to the UNCT panel for two years)