High Hopes Fade For India-US Ties Under Trump, Says Expert

WASHINGTON, DC – High expectations for India US relations under President Donald Trump have faded sharply, with enthusiasm and sustained political investment dropping compared with recent years, according to Joshua T. White, a former White House official and leading South Asia expert.

White, who previously served as Senior Advisor and Director for South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said early optimism about the relationship has given way to skepticism on both sides. In his White House role, he staffed President Barack Obama and the National Security Advisor on South Asia policy, including India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the broader Indian subcontinent.

“It’s pretty clear that we’re in a bad place,” White said, recalling the high hopes that existed when Trump returned to office. Those expectations were rooted in Trump’s earlier public rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the belief that a new team in Washington would continue to prioritize closer ties with New Delhi.

According to White, optimism began to erode by the spring and summer of 2025. “The relationship seems to have jumped the rails,” he said. While he stopped short of calling the situation irreparable, White noted that there is now “much more skepticism, and perhaps realism, both in the United States and in India about the future trajectory of this relationship.”

Some areas of cooperation have continued despite the broader chill. White pointed to defense ties, technology collaboration, and parts of the commercial relationship that have moved forward. However, he stressed that what is missing is sustained political attention at the highest levels. Compared with the Biden years, when there was “a significant outlay of time and investment,” White said that focus “seems to have changed dramatically.”

Asked about the reasons for the downturn, White cited a mix of personal, political, and structural factors. He said Trump’s own views played a role, particularly after the May India Pakistan conflict, when Trump felt India did not show sufficient appreciation for US engagement. At the same time, White said Pakistan’s leadership “clearly saw an opportunity and an opening to court President Trump,” while India, for both personal and political reasons, chose not to pursue that approach.

White also highlighted a deeper debate in Washington about what the United States gains from its partnership with India. While acknowledging strong commercial ties and people to people connections, he said doubts persist about India’s capacity as a long term security partner. “India has frankly struggled to even defend its own borders and its own maritime areas,” he said, raising questions about whether it can serve as a reliable security provider in its region.

Those doubts, White argued, have led many in Washington to reassess the long term value of the partnership. Trump era immigration policies, he added, further eroded trust, especially given the widely held view that Indian Americans have made significant contributions to the US economy and society.

White said the relationship has clearly regressed and warned that rebuilding trust will require consistent senior level attention. While Trump could still seek a trade or tariff deal to claim a political win, White cautioned that without sustained effort, there is a real risk the relationship will continue to drift. (IANS)