India to Be Third Contributor to Global GDP by 2040: U.S. Report

Indian passengers hang onto a train as it departs from a station on the outskirts of New Delhi on Feb. 28, 2017. According to a new report, India is going to double its contribution to the global GDP by 2040. (Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images)

NEW DELHI/WASHINGTON – While China will overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world by 2040, India will be a distant third contributor to the global GDP.

This statistical prediction made by Oxford Economics has been published in the seventh edition of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. The document, published every four years since 1997, assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.

As per the report, India is going to double its contribution to the global GDP by 2040 to 6.1 percent from 3.1 percent in 2020. India, in 2020, was at the fifth spot globally, but by 2040, will be the third largest economy. The report said India will replace Japan in the global rankings.

Even as China and India are poised to be the largest contributors to the global GDP at 29 percent together by 2040, the standards of living or per capita GDP are likely to remain well below those of advanced economies.

By 2040, developing countries in Asia are projected to account for approximately 35 percent of global GDP, with India and China as the largest contributors, at 29 percent of global GDP, according to Oxford Economics.

During the next 20 years, the world’s population will continue to increase every year, adding approximately 1.4 billion people to reach an estimated 9.2 billion by 2040, but the rate of population growth will slow in all regions.

Population growth in most of Asia will decline quickly, and after 2040, the population will begin to contract. Although India’s population growth is slowing, it will still overtake China as the world’s most populous country around 2027, the report said.

However, the U.S. Intelligence Council said, “India’s population size-projected to become the largest in the world by 2027 – geography, strategic arsenal, and economic and technological potential position it as a potential global power, but it remains to be seen whether New Delhi will achieve domestic development goals to allow it to project influence beyond South Asia. As China and the United States compete, India is likely to try to carve out a more independent role.”

India, the report said, “may struggle to balance its long-term commitment to strategic autonomy from Western powers with the need to embed itself more deeply into multilateral security architectures to counter a rising China. India faces serious governance, societal, environmental, and defense challenges that constrain how much it can invest in the military and diplomatic capabilities needed for a more assertive global foreign policy.”