International Student Drop Could Cost US $3.4 Billion And 40,000 Jobs: Report

India-West News Desk

WASHINGTON, DC -The U.S. economy could lose up to $3.4 billion in direct economic contributions and nearly 40,000 jobs if international student enrollment declines as projected for Fall 2026, according to an analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International.

The analysis estimates that as many as 111,000 fewer international students could attend U.S. colleges and universities in Fall 2026. International students contributed $42.90 billion to the U.S. economy and supported 355,736 jobs in Fall 2024–25.

For Fall 2026–27, the analysis projects between 1,104,912 and 1,056,884 international students, compared with 1,177,766 in Fall 2024–25. Under the mid-range projection, international students would contribute $39.62 billion and support 303,514 jobs. Under the upper-range projection, those figures would fall to $38.37 billion and 293,743 jobs.

California would face the largest projected economic loss among states at $499.6 million, followed by New York at $470.3 million. Massachusetts and Michigan are each projected to lose $284 million. Texas is projected to lose $199.1 million, Illinois $191.6 million and Pennsylvania $164.2 million.

The projected decline is being driven primarily by falling graduate-level enrollment, particularly at institutions with large international student populations. The analysis also points to declining international applications as an early indicator. Applications to U.S. doctoral programs fell 21 percent, while overall doctoral admissions fell 15 percent amid uncertainty over federal research funding.

India, one of the two largest sources of international students in the United States along with China, is also seeing a decline in applications. International submissions through the Common App fell 9 percent for the 2026–27 cycle, with submissions from India declining 14 percent. Submissions from Ghana fell 34 percent and Nigeria 17 percent.

Visa restrictions and delays are also affecting students from India and other countries. A December 16, 2025, executive order established restrictions covering 39 countries, with no exceptions for F student or J exchange visitor applicants. The countries include Iran and Nigeria, which send large numbers of students to the United States.

The analysis also cites limited or delayed visa appointments at consulates in India, China and across Europe, with many requests for expedited appointments denied. India and China are the two largest international student sending countries to the United States.

Changes to immigration rules are adding further uncertainty, particularly for students considering longer degree programs or uncertain career paths. The analysis also cites continued warnings from the administration that it intends to reform Optional Practical Training, which it describes as an important tool for meeting U.S. labor shortages in key fields, particularly STEM.

NAFSA is urging the administration to prioritize visa interviews and processing for F and M students and J exchange visitors, exempt those students and exchange visitors from the current travel ban affecting nationals of 39 countries while maintaining background checks and vetting, and preserve Optional Practical Training for all F 1 students.

The organization is also urging Congress to restore the duration of status policy and pass the Keep STEM Talent Act, the Keep Innovators in America Act, and provisions extending dual intent and creating a path to a green card for F 1 students included in the Dignity Act.