China Faces Tumultuous 2025 As Tensions Mount With US, Others

HONG KONG, (ANI) – China’s domestic and international turbulence in 2024 has reinforced Chairman Xi Jinping’s resolve to assert dominance, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continuing to wield its influence unapologetically. As 2025 approaches, challenges loom large for China and its global counterparts, especially in the context of U.S.-China relations, which are expected to face intensified strain under Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

Sino-U.S. Relations Under Trump’s Presidency

Following Trump’s election victory on November 5, 2024, Beijing has ramped up provocative actions. This includes hacking the U.S. Treasury Department in what has been described as the “worst telecom hack in U.S. history,” imposing stringent export controls, and sanctioning American firms. These acts have set a combative tone for bilateral relations ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.

Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, outlined four predictions for Sino-U.S. relations in 2025:

1.    Beijing’s Dual Strategy: While China may advocate for cooperation on select issues like trade and climate, it is expected to take a harder line on topics like Taiwan and the South China Sea, viewing them as core interests.

2.    Strategic Competition: Washington will solidify its stance on China as its principal strategic competitor, with trade and national security dominating the agenda.

3.    Limited Cooperation: Areas of mutual interest, such as military communications and combating fentanyl trafficking, may foster incremental progress despite underlying tensions.

4.    Diplomatic Engagement: Active diplomacy will remain a stabilizing factor, though questions persist about Beijing’s willingness to maintain open channels amid disputes.

Xi, having learned from Trump’s first presidency, is better prepared to counter U.S. actions. China’s more self-reliant economy contrasts with the U.S.’s politically fractured landscape, potentially giving Beijing leverage. Measures such as tightening control over Western companies operating in China and exploiting Elon Musk’s financial ties in the region may also emerge as tools to influence Trump’s administration.

Heightened Aggression in Taiwan and Beyond

China’s military assertiveness has intensified, particularly toward Taiwan. In 2024, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted its largest naval drills in decades, simulating blockades to cut off Taiwan and deter U.S. reinforcements. Chinese incursions into Japanese waters near the Senkaku Islands reached record highs, with 1,351 government vessels spotted in the area over 355 days. Meanwhile, accusations of undersea sabotage, such as damaging Taiwan’s Trans-Pacific Express Cable, underscore Beijing’s growing use of “gray-zone” tactics.

The Philippines has faced escalated harassment in the South China Sea, including interference with resupply missions and spoofing vessel identification systems. Commodore Jay Tarriela of the Philippine Coast Guard has highlighted Beijing’s violations of international maritime conventions, accusing China of deploying dredgers for illicit operations.

Technological Advancements and Power Projection

China’s rapid military modernization includes launching the world’s largest amphibious assault ship, the Type 076, and unveiling two sixth-generation aircraft. These advancements reflect Beijing’s confidence in its technological capabilities, further emboldening its regional ambitions.

Simultaneously, China is recalibrating its global influence strategy. While its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) wanes, new initiatives like the Global Development and Security Initiatives aim to solidify ties with the Global South, often in partnership with Russia through the BRICS framework.

Human Rights and Domestic Turmoil

Human rights abuses remain a stark feature of China’s governance. Reports indicate a network of over 218 detention centers under the liuzhi policy, where detainees face abuse and isolation. In Hong Kong, China’s crackdown on dissent has led to mass emigration, with mainland immigrants filling the void and shifting the territory’s demographics.

Internally, corruption within the CCP and the PLA remains a significant challenge. Xi’s anti-graft campaign investigated a record 56 senior officials in 2024, raising concerns about military readiness. Despite this, experts suggest corruption may not deter Beijing from initiating conflicts.

Outlook for 2025

As Xi continues to advocate for a “community of common destiny,” his vision often contrasts sharply with China’s actions. The CCP’s rhetoric of peace and fairness stands in stark contradiction to its aggressive policies. With heightened tensions across Asia and beyond, the world faces a future marked by greater unpredictability, confrontation, and conflict under Xi’s regime.